Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The average number of per-day murders per month in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official figures. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not signal better countrywide stability.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security experts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it could obscure days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.