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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.