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Initially, Trump appeared to adopt a resolute approach on Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "severe consequences" during the summer if Putin persisted blocking peace negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted major sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered Putin's capability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or European input, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's initiative would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in danger. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality compromise that very autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the war as a simple border issue, implying ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian land will please the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in place the currently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to capture in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that represent a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would make renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their current large number soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, the plan declares: "Every extremist doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal places no requirement that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied land in the region to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "immediate unified defense action" in case the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The plan would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing troops on the nation's land, thereby precluding the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "serious, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. But unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not